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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.